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Ordinarily, the NFL's Head Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward formula. It commonly acts as a kind of apology. Sorry we misjudged your team in our pre-campaign predictions.

In theory, it's a direct trajectory: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it sparks an yearly argument about expectations and whether we're truly rewarding superior coaching or just the greatest surprise.

But the current competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of comebacks. The league has been messy, with reigning division champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an typical year, Sean Payton leading the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the overwhelming favorite. But in this wild and entertaining year, he's up against several other outstanding coaches.

Here is how the hypothetical ballot ought to look.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year voters adore QBs. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're halfway home.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been given the opportunity to demonstrate his otherworldly talent. From Week 9, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. That's not a brief surge – it's sustained performance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more decisive, far less careless, and has willingly surrendered to the system instead of freelancing. It is an offense built entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that frees wide-open targets everywhere. Williams has thrived. And when openings haven't been there, he's been capable to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach came to the Bears with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each decision – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the pass-catchers, turning Williams into a timing-based passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon still for a coach who entered the organization with the kind of hype Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the top name on the coaching carousel. However when it comes to hiring a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a scheme genius but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an organization.

In a typical season, he would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is not a typical year!

Where his candidacy comes slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are living on turnovers, and turnovers are famously inconsistent. Coaches can stress ball disruption, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defense's work. With a few breaks of the ball, the team would be several wins behind. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However he comes up short here.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, His Team, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar position to his counterpart. He's a fellow first-time leader who has engineered a rapid turnaround. Over the crucial final weeks of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defensive unit that now sits at fifth in the NFL in Expected Points Added per play.

What's more impressively, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which wasn't a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason moves.

Coen took over Jacksonville with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the ideal staff blend of youth and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to assistant coaches, the Jags are filled with first-timers. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but often collapses in reality – with other teams are a cautionary tale – because everyone is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason setback had the team stumbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. Coen did not. Instead, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped pursuing home-run answers and started hunting consistent ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The outcomes are clear. The Jaguars have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the tiniest deduction in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, Their Record

Every Strong of the Year case has a pivotal moment. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback decision.

Moving on from a incumbent, bringing in a new signal-caller and pairing him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the mid point of the year, the new QB was an Most Valuable Player candidate. He has fallen away since that hot streak, dropping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, putting him only a single spot ahead of peers.

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