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Mounting concerns are present about the chance of armed conflict involving Horn of Africa neighbors, the Ethiopian government and the Eritrean government, as hostile rhetoric has escalated in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Said?

Landlocked Ethiopia's requests for passage to the sea coast through Eritrea has sparked a heated verbal exchange.

PM Abiy Ahmed initially stated publicly in 2023 that his country's maritime access was an crucial concern, remarks that Eritrea rejected.

Ties between the neighboring nations have often been tense. Following a prolonged fight for sovereignty, Eritrea, which has a long Red Sea coastline, formally separated from Ethiopia in 1993, rendering it cut off from the sea.

Subsequently, a territorial conflict broke out in which more than 100,000 people lost their lives.

Recent Statements from Ethiopian Officials

Abiy and military leader Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have openly claimed sovereignty of Eritrea's coastal city of Assab – some 60 km from the frontier - and hinted at the intention to capture it through military means.

On 1 September, Abiy said the country's "blunder" of losing entry to the sea as a due to Eritrea's separation would be "addressed soon".

Ethiopia's ambassador to neighboring Kenya, former General Bacha Debele, said that the port was "Ethiopian property" and would be returned "by force".

Eritrean Reaction to the Statements

In the face of persistent warnings from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been limited to concise remarks on online platforms from Information Minister Yemane G..

He has rejected Ethiopia's push for sea access describing it as "dangerous" and a "harmful plan" of "territorial claims" – a strategy of claiming back former lands.

Government spokespeople alerted on mid-September that attempts to validate "obvious provocation" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its neighbouring countries and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Border

There have been no reports of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the two countries.

However, in the country, government media has broadcast completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The director of personnel division of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an conversation that the defense forces was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of youths" were enlisting, which he said was "a warning to our enemies".

Past Origins of the Tension

For more than half a century from 1890, the territory was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After World War II, it was then administered by the British military before becoming a associated territory of the Ethiopian empire.

Yet in the early 1960s Emperor Haile Selassie I ended this agreement and Eritrea became completely integrated into Ethiopia.

A three-decade long armed struggle followed, finishing with Ethiopia's defeat in 1991. Sovereignty was then approved by Eritreans in a referendum in 1993.

Briefly in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Eritrea's capital, but they fell out over the exact location of their common border, causing conflict in 1998.

Though this concluded in a peace deal in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the two nations stayed at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when Abiy made approaches to Eritrean President the president. The two agreed to a declaration that the war was over – a decision that earned the Prime Minister the Nobel Peace Prize.

The both administrations were then cooperators in the country's previous armed struggle in Tigray.

Yet relations have subsequently deteriorated once more.