A decade after the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the country and caused disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has occurred in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and societal statistics, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Discussions cover national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish question."
